I was pleased to read that the Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology believes the El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, which is driving Australia’s severe drought, is over. This is excellent news and an encouraging sign that better rainfall may be on the way.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reflects temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and their impact on climate over land in the southern hemisphere. In a statement, the Bureau claimed the main ENSO indicators demonstated that ‘normal’ conditions have returned to the Pacific Basin and equatorial sea-surface temperatures are cooling rapidly. This increases the likelihood of greater rainfall across Australia.

A drought-affected wheat field near Nagambie, Victoria.

The drought of 2006/7 has been the worst in recorded history, as was reported on the News Desk in October (see “Exploring the Big Dry“). According to ABARE, wheat production in Victoria fell by 76% compared to last season, as a direct result of severe drought and frosts. Melbourne is now on Stage 3 water restrictions. The city’s water supply is at 34.8% of capacity at the time of writing.

With the rural economy in recession, town water supplies dwindling and poor crop yields, the ending of the El Niño is very positive news. It does not signal the end of the drought, but it is an encourging sign.

We can only hope from here that good Autumn rains fall across Australia’s south-east, where they are needed most.