Predictions for a leadership spill
With the commencement of a backbench revolt against Prime Minister Tony Abbott, here are my thoughts on what may happen next.
It’s most regrettable that after the leadership tumult of the Rudd-Gillard government, Australians are again having to witness instability amongst their elected leaders. Following shock election results in Queensland and questionable decisions by the Prime Minister, Tony Abbott’s position as the head of government is looking increasingly shaky.
Last night, backbench Western Australian MP Dr. Dennis Jensen went onto ABC’s 7:30 programme to publicly disavow his leader saying that “there is no strategic direction, the policy is not consistent and coherent” and that Mr. Abbott was a poor communicator. He has since been followed by Queensland MPs Warren Entsch and Mal Brough who have also called for a quick resolution. Both men have qualified their support for the leader.
A leadership spill could play out several ways, but here are my predictions for how each MP will behave.
Tony Abbott
Mr. Abbott is a proud man with a fighting spirit and I cannot see him resigning willingly, no matter who taps him on the shoulder. His strong conviction that the Rudd-Gillard leadership tensions were destructively destabilising for the Labor Party and tiring for the public to witness will cause him to resist stepping-down on principle. He will fight any challenger head-on and will expect to win.
Julie Bishop
As Foreign Minister, Julie Bishop is an obvious leadership contender. Despite the delay in her declaration, she did announce that she would not challenge Mr. Abbott in any leadership spill and this seems likely. Ms. Bishop is ambitious but she also knows that if she runs against Mr. Abbott and he wins a leadership ballot her career will be all but finished. Mr. Abbott would unlikely make the mistake that Ms. Gillard made in giving the former leader a senior portfolio as a consolation prize.
Additionally, should Ms. Bishop win a leadership ballot she’d become the second female prime minister in Australia’s history. Like the first, she’d have obtained that position by “knifing” her leader and that would turn a most unfortunate precedent into a pattern.
Malcolm Turnbull
Without a shadow of a doubt, Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull is the most likely leadership contender and one of the best communicators the Liberal Party has. He’s well-recognised and respected within the community and seen as an intelligent and thoughtful individual. Should there be a spill, I have no doubt that Mr. Turnbull will run, especially given his comments last week and his previous experience as party leader.
That said, Mr. Turnbull is relatively progressive by Liberal Party standards and his leadership would take the Liberal Party in a very different direction from the ultraconservative Mr. Abbott. In choosing Mr. Turnbull as leader, the party would be electing a very different direction as well as a different leader. This may be too much for many MPs to stomach, although it may be the change that the party needs to become re-electable.
Scott Morrison
Minister for Social Services Scott Morrison was immigration minister until recently and is generally regarded as having performed well in the Liberal Party with his hard line on immigration including the party’s “stop the boats” campaign. Whilst popular within the government, his punitive approach towards refugees would make many members of the public uncomfortable with him as leader. He may be a good “head-kicker”, but so far the public has seen little of his softer side, which is one of Mr. Abbott’s failings.
Mr. Morrison is ambitious and I believe he may nominate for leader or as someone’s deputy, but I’d be rather surprised if he were elected leader on account of his limited profile with the public.
Christopher Pyne
The Minister for Education Christopher Pyne is another senior “head-kicking” Liberal who may be tempted to run for leader, but I doubt that he will. Mr. Pyne is very loyal and like Mr. Morrison has a limited profile with the general public. I suspect Mr. Pyne will back Mr. Abbott in any leadership spill.
Joe Hockey
The final leadership contender is Treasurer Joe Hockey. Once popular with the public, Mr. Hockey has gone to ground following a horror budget which was filled with hard-to-swallow nasties including cuts to Medicare and welfare. I’d have once considered Mr. Hockey a good leadership contender but I suspect that he’ll take Peter Costello’s approach this time and not nominate against Mr. Abbott. Whilst in time Mr. Hockey could easily reinstate his good rapport with the public, now is not the time for Mr. Hockey to make a silly mistake and run for the leadership.
Eric Abetz, George Brandis and Mathias Cormann
None of these three men will run for leader. Messrs. Abetz and Cormann seem less-than-interested and technophobe George Brandis doesn’t have what it takes in either personality nor communication skills.
Kevin Andrews
I believe that Defence Minister Kevin Andrews may nominate (as he did last time) in order that there be an alternative choice to leader but I don’t believe that he has genuine leadership ambitions.
Conclusion
I predict that if there is a leadership spill, it will be between Mr. Abbott and Mr. Turnbull with Mr. Andrews possibly entering on the side.
Comments
One response to “Predictions for a leadership spill”
The Bishop may well not challenge The Abbott, but if there is a spill, I expect she will have her name put forward. Party colleagues did not like Turnbull as their leader and dumped him. Invariably I am wrong when I make any predictions, but I suggest The Bishop may well get a guernsey.