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Will the drought end?

It has been a wet weekend in Melbourne, but signs of an end to the drought remain elusive.

Two years ago, I wrote about a trip I took to Nagambie in regional Victoria to inspect the worst drought in the state’s history.

Sheltered in part by a city existence, I felt a strong urge to see how difficult the conditions were for rural Victorians. When I visited, crops had failed and agricultural production in all sectors was falling. As the summer wore on, the aridity led to explosive bushfires that caused mass-destruction across much of Victoria.

Two years on, and the drought is continuing albeit with a loosened grip. Back in 2006, the whole state was suffering from drought, but now some districts (such as Gippsland) have had a reprieve.

As I write this and look out my window, it is raining in Melbourne. In fact, rain has been falling for almost a day. The Bureau says it’s been the wettest day of 2008 with 36 mm falling in the past 24 hours. More showers are forecast for the coming week.

Could this possibly signal the end of the drought?

It has certainly been cool and wet in Melbourne this December. As it was last month too.

Yet it’s difficult to take much comfort because the weather has been so very inconsistent this past 6 months, as if the drought is trying to end but can’t. To illustrate the point, I have collected rainfall data from the Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology for the year 2008. The following table shows median rainfall in millimetres (for all years) and the rainfall recorded in Melbourne for each calendar month:

It can clearly be seen that there’s a pattern of exceptionally dry months (between 20-30% of mean rainfall) followed by much wetter months (upwards of 90%). Unfortunately, this pattern has been enough to destroy agricultural production in some areas, and cause locust plagues in others.

In Melbourne, more heavy falls are predicted for the coming week, and it could therefore be assumed that December’s rainfall might exceed the average of 51.4 mm. The Bureau reported in 2007 that the El Niño is over. That said (and as the table shows), January and February are always the driest months in Melbourne. If the recent rainfall pattern continues, then January and February could reasonably be expected to be unseasonally dry, as were September-October and April-May-June of 2008.

Of course such a prediction is nothing more than my very crude analysis of one year’s data.

More credible information comes from the Bureau which says that Melbourne has a 50% chance of exceeding the median rainfall this summer, meaning that above-average falls are about as equally likely as below-average falls. For the rest of the state, higher than average rainfalls are expected in the Western district (from Geelong to Warrnambool and north to Hamilton), Gippsland and the Alps. The following chart shows the likelihood of above-average rain across the country.

Whether the drought is likely to end is impossible to forecast. Certainly the Bureau is not making any statements in this regard because no-one really knows.

As much as I hope the drought does end, it is very pleasing to see heavy rainfalls across the state, particularly in agricultural districts. In Melbourne too, the rain is most welcome. Melbourne’s water storages are at 34.0% (compared to 39.4% last year) and have increased in the last day as a result of the rainfall. So that is good news indeed.

Whether this is the once-in-1000 year drought or climate change, we all have to do our bit to reduce water consumption and recycle as much water as possible. Perhaps then we will finally be rewarded with some relief from the drought.

   

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